By Sean Colón
A Softer Season for Arizona Real Estate
Arizona’s fall housing market has entered a unique moment of calm. Despite mortgage rates falling to their lowest levels in over a year, pending home sales in September stayed flat, signaling that many buyers remain hesitant. According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), contracts for existing homes were unchanged from August and down 0.9% year-over-year — a surprising stall given recent improvements in affordability.
Mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September, down from 6.89% in May, translating to an average savings of about $150 per month, or nearly $1,900 per year, for a median-priced home. Yet that relief hasn’t translated into a noticeable uptick in new sales contracts. For Arizona Realtors, understanding why—and how to pivot—is key to navigating the months ahead.
Falling Rates, Flat Results: What’s Behind the Stall?
The broader market sentiment suggests hesitation. According to Fannie Mae’s latest consumer survey, 73% of respondents said September was a bad time to buy, while only 27% felt it was a good time. Economic uncertainty and a “softening job market,” as NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun explains, have dulled the impact of lower rates.
For many Arizona buyers, it’s not a matter of affordability alone—it’s about confidence. With the Federal Reserve expected to announce another rate cut this week, some are waiting to see where mortgage rates settle before making a move. Meanwhile, refinances have surged as homeowners lock in savings rather than entering a competitive market for new properties.
Regional Shifts: Where the Momentum Lies
While the national picture shows stagnation, regional differences reveal opportunity. Pending sales fell in the Midwest and West, but climbed in the Northeast and South. For Arizona Realtors, that means buyers are becoming more selective within local markets, prioritizing stable employment zones and properties offering strong long-term value.
In Metro Phoenix, inventory remains up year-over-year, offering a range of price points for both investors and first-time buyers. However, with average days on market trending longer than last fall, sellers are recalibrating expectations. Properties priced accurately and marketed with high-quality visuals are still attracting attention, particularly those highlighting value in popular areas such as Gilbert, Chandler, and North Scottsdale.
Why Buyers Are Holding Back—and How Realtors Can Move Them Forward
Buyers are caught between two realities: improving affordability and persistent uncertainty. Lower mortgage rates have yet to erase affordability concerns entirely, especially after years of steep price growth. Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant summed it up well: “Affordability is still a constraint even as rates have fallen to their lowest level in a year.”
Realtors can play a decisive role here by helping clients understand the cost of hesitation. A 70-basis-point drop in rates since May means thousands in potential savings—savings that could disappear quickly if rates tick upward again. Educating clients on how today’s environment compares historically can reframe their perception of risk and opportunity.
Smart Strategies for Arizona Realtors This Season
To adapt to this “momentum-meets-caution” market, Realtors can lean on these strategies:
Highlight Affordability Gains: Use real numbers to demonstrate the impact of falling rates. For example, show clients how a 6.35% rate versus 6.89% affects their monthly payment.
Focus on Emotional Confidence: Buyers need reassurance about timing. Share long-term appreciation data and the potential for equity growth in stable Arizona submarkets.
Prioritize Quality Marketing: With buyers slowing their pace, homes need to stand out visually. Invest in professional photography and video content to make listings feel dynamic and current.
Promote Local Expertise: Emphasize your knowledge of neighborhood trends—particularly where supply-demand dynamics are shifting.
The Visual Edge: Why Listings Still Need to Shine
Even in a slower sales environment, strong visual marketing remains a top differentiator. Homes photographed professionally receive significantly higher engagement across online listings and social media. Arizona’s competitive mid-tier market benefits most from high-quality twilight photography and well-edited visuals that elevate perceived value.
If your fall listings need a visual refresh or more compelling content to drive online engagement, I can help you create photography that captures attention and helps listings perform better. Contact me through my website to explore how strategic visuals can position your listings for stronger fall performance.
Join the Conversation
How are your buyers responding to the recent drop in mortgage rates? Are you seeing more engagement or continued hesitation in your Arizona market? Share your experiences and insights in the comments below — your perspective can help fellow Realtors better navigate this unpredictable season.
By the way, I help realtors improve their online and social media presence by providing beautiful photos of their listings. That is why I’ve created this FREE HOME PREP LIST for your clients to help your listings look their best. Feel free to share.