By Sean Colón
Despite the searing July heat, Phoenix’s housing market continues to surprise. As second-quarter demand cooled off, Paradise Valley made a counterintuitive shift—and became the third-strongest seller’s market in Greater Phoenix. From cancelled listings to shifting inventory trends, here’s what realtors need to know to help both buyers and sellers navigate this changing landscape with confidence.
🔥 Buyer’s Update: What’s Cooling Down in Phoenix?
Cancelled and expired listings soared: In June, cancelled listings climbed 46% year-over-year, and expired listings rose 79%. This has cut overall supply by 8% in just five weeks.
Luxury market sees the steepest decline: Homes priced over $800K saw a 14% drop in inventory, versus a 5% drop for homes under $800K.
Paradise Valley flips expectations upside-down: Active supply here dropped 39% in six weeks, but contracts only fell 5%, creating an unexpectedly strong seller’s market.
Entry-level buyers are seeing movement: Single-family home sales between $250K–$300K jumped 38%, and the $300K–$400K range rose 10%. Prices in both brackets have dropped approximately 3.5% year-over-year.
Condo sales flatline: Condos in the $300K–$400K sector lost 5.5% in price and are down 11% in sales compared to June of last year.
Mid-range buyers experience stability: Homes priced between $500K–$800K saw little change in sales volume or price.
What it means: As prices soften across many price bands, buyer contract activity—especially in lower ranges—is starting to pick up.
💡 Tips for Realtors Working with Buyers
Target those hot $250K–$400K segments: Entry-level buyers are active and responsive. Focus your search filters and marketing here.
Educate on benefit shifts: More negotiability and buyer leverage means smart agents can leverage closing cost help or lender credits to seal deals.
Highlight price improvements: A 3.5% price decline may sound small—but it offers a real competitive advantage for buyers concerned about affordability.
Seller’s Strategies: Pricing and Negotiation in a Cooling Market
Closing expectations remain high: Last month, 55% of listings closed with sellers contributing a median $10,000 toward buyers’ closing costs, while final sale prices averaged 97.1% of list.
Contract speed slows: Median days on market before a contract: 44 days for single-family, 59 days for condos/townhomes.
Pricing differential by property type:
$300K–$400K single-family homes close at 99.1% of list price,
Same-range condos close at 97.7%, a $4K–$6K gap in favor of single-family product.
For homes over $1M, negotiations bring closings to 95%–96% of list price.
Smart Seller Advice:
Don’t assume a stale listing needs massive price reductions. Often, rebalancing the terms or offering incentives gets the deal done without downticking the list price drastically.
Be especially strategic in Paradise Valley right now: with supply down 39%, even consistent contract activity can push it into a strong seller’s market.
Realtor Action Plan: Arizona Market Playbook
Exploit micro-market shifts like Paradise Valley’s unexpected sprint into seller territory.
Customize seller-side approaches by price tier—including contract terms, staging, and timelines.
For buyers, lean into negotiation coaching, emphasizing power in the entry-level segment.
Regularly update clients on shifting inventory and renegotiated sales price norms.
The Arizona market remains fluid—but that only increases demand for skilled, knowledgeable real estate agents. You're not just navigating trends—you’re steering clients through them with confidence. Let the data guide your strategy—and let your expertise shine through.
By the way, I help realtors improve their online and social media presence by providing beautiful photos of their listings. That is why I’ve created this FREE HOME PREP LIST for your clients to help your listings look their best. Feel free to share.