Overview: A Market in Motion
By Sean Colón
Phoenix’s housing landscape is evolving and smart Arizona realtors are already adapting. For the first time in nearly a year, we’re seeing Phoenix in its 8th straight month as a buyer’s market, driven by stabilizing home prices, rising wages, and shifting listing activity.
For Buyers: Affordability Is Improving Naturally
Purchasing power is increasing—and here’s why it matters:
Wage-growth boost: National wage growth is at 4.3%, but in Phoenix, it's reached a striking 9.3% year-over-year, compared to local inflation just 0.3%. That’s real take-home pay boosting home affordability.
Flat to down home prices: The metro-wide price appreciation is hovering around 0–1%, undercutting inflation and even drifting down in the sub-$500K tier (which made up 58% of sales last month)—now down 2.2% YOY.
Mortgage rates: These haven’t dropped yet—but the combination of rising income and steady prices is easing the affordability pressure.
Realtor take: Highlight rising household income and cooling price trends in your client conversations. Use mortgage calculators to show today’s monthly payment is more manageable than it seems.
For Sellers: Timing & Strategy Over Price Cuts
The spring market had mixed signals, but there are opportunities:
April slowdown rebound: Surprise tariffs and rate spikes dipped contracts in April, causing May closings to drop.
Rebounding sentiment: May saw optimism surge—purchase mortgage applications rose 18% YOY, the highest in two years.
Luxury market on fire: High-end listings (> $1M) rebounded with a 30% jump in contracts over 4 weeks—even as temperatures topped 100°F.
Listing fatigue: Even as inventory remains up 45% YOY, new listings are down 39% in the past 2 months with cancellations up 38% and expirations up 84%—signaling many sellers are pressing pause or converting to rentals.
Realtor tip: Emphasize precision pricing over reductions. Showcase strong summer buyer activity—especially in the luxury market—to motivate sellers to re-engage.
Tactical Steps For Arizona Realtors
1. Frame the narrative with facts:
“Recent data shows a 9.3% wage growth here in Phoenix—so buyers are more qualified now than they were six months ago.”
2. Target sub-$500K messaging:
Talk affordability in these high-demand segments.
Use visuals: price trend line charts, income vs. cost infographics.
3. Reassure sellers who pulled listings:
Explain strategic pauses vs. market defeats.
Promote off-season relistings with refreshed staging and virtual tours.
4. Emphasize summer market dynamism:
List the +30% luxury contracts stat.
Remind sellers: historically low inventory boosts potential visibility.
5. Equip buyers for future rate drops:
Share mortgage refinance tips (after closing).
Connect them to trusted loan officers for forecasting.
Final Thoughts
Phoenix’s 2025 market is pivoting and Arizona realtors have a competitive edge. With improving affordability, hot luxury demand, and creative listing behavior, savvy agents who speak to the right motivation points and fit strategies to buyer and seller psychology will thrive.
If you’re navigating this shift, arm yourself with data, position yourself as a trusted guide, and help clients make confident moves—even when rates hold steady or rewind. After all, real estate success in 2025 belongs to those who forecast trends before they show up on Zillow.
By the way, I help realtors improve their online and social media presence by providing beautiful photos of their listings. That is why I’ve created this FREE HOME PREP LIST for your clients to help your listings look their best. Feel free to share.