By Sean Colón
Inventory is rising, price cuts are showing up, and buyers may be gaining ground—but smart strategy still rules the game.
The Arizona summer is scorching, and so is the curiosity among buyers and sellers trying to decode the 2025 housing market. With headlines buzzing about rate cuts, price drops, and shifting demand, many Arizona realtors are asking the same question: Are we heading into a buyer’s market?
Here’s what you need to know to stay sharp, advise clients wisely, and seize new opportunities in today’s evolving market.
Inventory is Rising—But Still Tight
Let’s start with the numbers. According to Realtor.com, national housing inventory remains 16% below pre-pandemic levels—but the tide is turning. In Arizona, especially in fast-growing areas like Queen Creek, Buckeye, and Maricopa, we’re finally seeing signs of life on the MLS. Active listings have crept up compared to this time last year, and price reductions are becoming more common across Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs.
UMB Bank analysts believe the broader market is shifting in favor of buyers. Sellers are getting more creative—think concessions, rate buydowns, and enhanced staging—while homes linger slightly longer on the market. Still, don’t mistake this for a crash. Prices are softening, not plunging.
Rates Feel High—But They’re Historically Reasonable
Interest rates are another hot topic. While today’s mortgage rates feel elevated compared to the post-pandemic lows, they’re still historically healthy. As of June 2025, we haven’t seen the Federal Reserve lower rates this year, despite mounting pressure from inflation concerns and mixed economic signals.
For Arizona buyers, the key message is this: Don’t wait for rates to “go back to normal.” Instead, help clients focus on finding the right property and refinancing later if rates drop. According to Bankrate, the average homeowner gained $5,700 in equity between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024—reminding us that equity growth often outpaces timing anxiety.
It’s Still a Good Time to Buy—But Plan Carefully
Buying in 2025 comes with caveats. On the upside, there are more homes to choose from, better pricing strategies, and an uptick in builder incentives. But your clients need to budget carefully for hidden costs:
Insurance: Homeowners insurance in Arizona now averages $2,110 per year, according to NerdWallet. That’s up from just a few years ago, thanks in part to natural disaster risk and inflation. It’s smart to get an insurance quote early in the buying process—especially in areas like Scottsdale and Flagstaff, where insurers may require a new roof or updated systems.
Moving Costs: The average cost to move a 3-bedroom home locally is $2,119, while cross-country moves can top $4,000, per U.S. News & World Report. These are numbers your clients need to plan for, not discover at closing.
New Builds and Tariffs: A Mixed Bag
New construction continues to expand across Phoenix’s outer ring, from San Tan Valley to Surprise. Builders are offering competitive pricing and may have spec homes available—fully built but unsold—which can mean strong deals for buyers. However, tariffs on materials remain a wildcard. Encourage clients to speak with builders about how tariffs might impact build timelines or upgrade costs.
Regional Insights: Why Local Matters
The Arizona market is deeply regional. In Phoenix, we’re seeing new builds priced below older resale homes, which is flipping the traditional premium model. Meanwhile, buyers looking for entry-level single-family homes in Tucson or Flagstaff may find options limited and pricing still firm.
Contrast that with places like Dallas or Denver, where the gap between new construction and resale pricing is wider. This makes it more critical than ever for Arizona agents to lean into hyper-local expertise and provide strategic counsel tailored to each zip code.
The Bottom Line: Be Your Client’s Trusted Advocate
Whether your client is buying a home in Chandler, building in Goodyear, or relocating from California to Scottsdale, your role as their advisor is more important than ever. The Arizona housing market may be trending toward balance, but complexity is rising—from insurance hurdles to pricing psychology.
Buyers aren’t just looking for a house; they’re looking for someone they trust to guide them through the process. Be that person. Offer clarity in uncertain times. And remind clients that while market conditions change, smart real estate decisions—and great representation—never go out of style.
Key Takeaways for Arizona Realtors:
Inventory is increasing, but still tight—especially for entry-level homes.
Price reductions are up, hinting at a more balanced market.
Rates aren’t likely to fall significantly, so encourage smart buying now, refinancing later.
Insurance and moving costs are rising, so buyers should plan accordingly.
New builds offer opportunity, but tariffs and timelines need close monitoring.
Local expertise matters more than ever.
If you’re a realtor in Arizona, 2025 is your time to shine—not just by finding homes, but by providing insight, advocacy, and steady guidance. That’s how you stand out—and how you help your clients win in a shifting market.
Looking for more timely market insights, SEO-friendly content, and marketing strategies tailored to Arizona real estate? Let’s keep the conversation going.
By the way, I help realtors improve their online and social media presence by providing beautiful photos of their listings. That is why I’ve created this FREE HOME PREP LIST for your clients to help your listings look their best. Feel free to share.