By Sean Colón
As 2025 winds down, the Arizona real estate market is defying expectations — and savvy Realtors know it’s the perfect time to guide clients with precision. From mortgage rates dipping to the lowest levels in over a year to a wave of price adjustments in key segments, both buyers and sellers have new opportunities to act strategically this fall.
Mortgage Rates Drop — and Buyer Psychology Takes Over
Between mid-July and mid-September, mortgage rates slid from 6.85% to 6.1%, marking the sharpest two-month decline in over a year and lowering monthly payments by 7.5%. Yet buyer activity didn’t immediately spike. Many prospective buyers held off, waiting to see if rates would fall further. Once rates stabilized near 6.3%, activity finally picked up — reaching the highest October demand in three years.
For Realtors, this behavioral lag is a valuable insight. Buyers often hesitate during periods of volatility, creating a window for agents to educate and encourage them to act before competition ramps up.
Falling Prices Reshape the Entry-Level Market
Price drops have quietly made select price points far more attainable. Condos between $250K–$300K in Maricopa County have dropped 4.3% since July and sit 15% below 2022’s peak. Similarly, Pinal County single-family homes between $300K–$400K are down 6.7% from last April, while Maricopa County homes in the same range are 13% below peak pricing.
These aren’t temporary dips — they represent real affordability shifts. Realtors who stay informed about localized trends can help buyers identify undervalued neighborhoods before the market rebounds.
Seller Incentives Hit Record Highs
More than 56% of MLS closings in September included seller-paid concessions — typically around $10,000 per transaction. What began as a builder strategy has become a widespread tool in resale markets. As appreciation stalls, sellers with strong equity positions can still leverage concessions to move properties faster, especially before the holiday slowdown.
Timing the Market: Why Q4 Favors Buyers
Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best time for buyers in Greater Phoenix. Inventory rises, but buyer traffic dips during the holidays, creating prime negotiation conditions. Expect more price reductions before Thanksgiving and aggressive concessions from motivated sellers who want to close before year-end.
Realtors can capitalize on this seasonal pattern by re-engaging hesitant buyers and framing Q4 as a rare opportunity window — not a lull.
Shifting Dynamics for Sellers
It’s been a challenging year for many sellers, but not all markets are struggling. Homes priced between $500K and $1.5M saw a 19% year-over-year jump in sales this September, thanks to jumbo mortgage rates dipping below conventional loans for the first time in two years and an uptick in adjustable-rate mortgage popularity (around 5.8%).
While Greater Phoenix remains a buyer’s market overall, pockets of strength persist. Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Fountain Hills remain firm seller’s markets, alongside Gilbert, Chandler, and Anthem. Outlying areas like Buckeye, Queen Creek, and Casa Grande lean toward buyer-friendly conditions due to new home supply.
Positioning for What’s Next
For Realtors advising sellers, patience and precision are key. Those listing now should price competitively and prepare for longer days on market — but with the right photography, staging, and strategy, deals are still closing. For sellers waiting until Q1, expect increased competition as new listings flood the market in early 2026.
Ready to Help Clients Win in Q4?
If you’re preparing listings this season, the right visuals can make all the difference. Twilight photos, cinematic video, and sharp listing imagery attract serious buyers even in slower cycles. Visit SeanColon.com to elevate your marketing with expert real estate photography tailored to Arizona’s unique light, architecture, and buyer expectations.
Join the Conversation
How are you guiding clients through this shifting market? Share your experiences or predictions in the comments — your insight could help other Arizona Realtors navigate Q4 successfully.
By the way, I help realtors improve their online and social media presence by providing beautiful photos of their listings. That is why I’ve created this FREE HOME PREP LIST for your clients to help your listings look their best. Feel free to share.